Severing the EU dependence links with Russia is the only way out of the Ukraine crisis

A slightly different version of this article appeared in Aktualne.cz blog in Czech language, accessible here.

Days after the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine sent a shockwave of panic and revulsion across Europe, the EU has responded by imposing an unprecedented regimen of economic and political sanctions. While this has been hailed as evidence of a galvanised Europe and revitalised Western alliance, the vexed issue of continuing EU reliance on Russian gas and oil remains, as yet, unresolved. Until Europe can free itself from what is a dangerous energy dependency on an unstable Russian regime, the Union’s ability to push for the end of the war on Ukraine remains fatally compromised. 

Russia’s attack on Ukraine appears to have been timed with utmost cruelty, just as the world was taking its first meaningful steps to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the response across Europe has led to a swelling of national deficits, among developed economies quantitative easing has led to far greater savings. This, coupled with a remarkable resilience to the COVID downturn among the economies of Eastern Europe, means the EU finds itself surprisingly well equipped financially to act against Russia. 

To do so, however, a concerted effort must be made to wean the EU off Russian energy swiftly and decisively, along with the business lobby that comes with it. Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil (responsible for 26,9% of total imported crude oil), natural gas (responsible for 41, 1% of total imported natural gas) and solid fossil fuels (responsible for 46,7% of total imported solid fuel)[1]. This level of dependence on a rival power that has, over the past fifteen years, shown itself to be increasingly hostile to the principles and practicalities of European democracy has always made for an uneasy compromise. Now, confronted with the blunt reality of Russian military aggression, that uneasy reality has become an unacceptable one.  

In order to reclaim energy independence, and the economic and political heft that goes with it, the EU must invest heavily in the sectors best placed to negate Putin’s influence. First and foremost, renewable energy production via wind, water, and solar energy can no longer be viewed as an optional extra, but rather the central imperative for long term energy security on the continent. These technologies have, in recent years, proved their effectiveness and are viable alternatives for the future, but they will require massive and well-coordinated investments to ensure their success both on land and at sea. It will also require the modernisation and digitalisation of the energy grids, to enable prosumerism and to improve interconnectivity between different regions and countries to ensure reliability and flexibility of energy transmission. Energy efficiency measures has to be another priority area, from energy efficiency in buildings to heating systems.

Furthermore, the recent EU decision to strategically re-designate gas as a sustainable fuel requires an urgent rethink. This decision was taken by means of political contrivance, and it was not based on scientific evaluation. In addition to the environmental devastation this can cause, such a position inexorably shackles EU energy policy to an ongoing and ever deeper dependence on Russia, compromising EU’s strategic autonomy and climate goals at the same time. 

This decision is made more urgent by the ongoing plans for the phasing out of coal among CEE countries. All possible measures must be taken to ensure those states are not forced into relying on Russian gas as an alternative, even temporarily. These measures will require the larger EU economies aiding this transition by acting as guarantors of their energy independence and actively supporting the investment into alternative energy sources and their scaling up. 

The cohesion required to implement these necessary measures simultaneously will not be easy to achieve and will require far-sighted cooperation at the expense of short-term profiteering by well entrenched and powerful lobbies within the EU. However, a lot depends on Europe’s ability to put aside short-term business interests and vested interests: first, EU’s ability to pressurise Russia to end the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, and second, its economic and energy security.  

Much has been said in the past week of the founding principle of the EU as a project to ensure lasting peace on the European continent. But a principle without practicality is pointless, and those who designed the EU architecture’s earliest incarnation as the European Coal and Steel Community understood the vital role that shared energy supplies play in ensuring peace in Europe. That principle remains unchanged, and it must now be renewed by the establishment of an independent means of energy production within the EU, so that its ability to exert influence in the name of peace can no longer be compromised by dependency on hostile regimes or on outdated fossil fuels. 

[1] Numbers from 2019, published on the EU website.